Tea traditions Central Asia
Central Asia will explode after the death of Karimov
Candidate of historical Sciences, expert in Turkic Philology, political consultant Askar Kurmangaliyev about the difficult times for the Asian republics of the CIS.
In modern Central Asia there are three interesting problems. First – political. All Asian Republic, but one steadily followed the path of authoritarianism. They ruled unchallenged leaders – “fathers”, some of which get titles like “Albany”. This complies with the Asian mentality, but it leads to concentration of power and responsibility within a clan, who together with the country is held hostage to the fate of one person.
While in Kazakhstan Nazarbayev and Karimov in Uzbekistan, it seems that everything is in order. By the way, in Uzbekistan, many citizens think that Karimov had died, and in the procession carry the stands and the festive show of his twin. This fact well illustrates the importance of leader figures for people’s psychology. This figure eventually acquires superstition.
The only country that pretends to a democratic path of development in the region – this revolutionary Kyrgyzstan, where two presidents in their seats do not stay, and now completely limited to a parliamentary form of government. This, on the one hand, the danger for Kyrgyzstan. On the other hand, the Republic may need such independent experience in troubled times. If Kyrgyzstan did not get out of the quagmire of their political differences, it risks disintegrating in rotation events, and its Northern part, anyway, the coast of Issyk-Kul, I will try to Annex Kazakhstan.
And such will begin soon, as soon as Islam Karimov will die for real. In Uzbekistan will immediately begin the redistribution of power. The state will loosen its control over Pro-Western opposition and the Islamists, who can unite among themselves and with several clans vying for power. Very likely result in ethnic clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbek ethnic groups in both States. Gradually they will take over large-scale development. The authoritarian Karimov is now – is the guarantor of relative calm in the region.
Kazakhstan, probably waiting for a more peaceful development, but there and possible riots, the inevitable change of ownership and the weakening of the economy after the death or resignation of the aging and ailing President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
The second issue is closely linked to the first, it’s a religion. The region has seen the growth of Islamism. It survives well on the former territory of the khanate of Kokand, in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and some southern regions of Kyrgyzstan. In the North of Kyrgyzstan and in Kazakhstan, where the population profess together with a mild (as possible) Islam folk traditions, quite simply, residues of shamanism, radical Islam is historically informed encounters resistance. There was also a movement for the revival of pure shamanism, increaserevenue not with Islam, the so-called “Tengrism”.
There is a reasonable view that Russia, if she don’t want education in their backyard of new powerful sources of Islamic radicalism, perhaps we should support neohumanist and various kinds of local populists. These populists often use nationalist rhetoric, but in reality they are far less dangerous than the builders of the Caliphate. On the other hand, there are examples (including recent Russian history), when neoshamanism and neo-pagans are allied with radical Islamists against a common, they believe, the enemy ’ s Christians.
The third question is – perspectives of the Russian-speaking Diaspora, which still remains in Central Asia are quite large. Of course, if in the region will expand military conflict and it will turn into a hot spot (or rather, in the “burning zone” of such points), most of the Russian-speaking population will become refugees. But while this population would like to advise to be politically active. Namely – not to sit home with an arrogant view of the offended, ousted former masters, the colonizers, and to join in the events. Learn languages, participate in election campaigns, even in revolutions.
Then to local people, representatives of the Diaspora will stand as full citizens, along with others having a right to “cake”. Now, while most of the Russian title is seen as some kind of Asian Nations “former people” living somewhere to the side, in a mental rut forgotten about them between Russia and reject the sovereignty of their Republic. This, incidentally, concerns, and Baltic countries. But in Latvia, as we see, the Russian-speaking community has transferred from Soviet nostalgia to the day of today and actively involved in politics.